The Hornets may not own the No. 1 pick, but Thursday’s NBA Draft essentially begins when they’re on the clock at No. 2.
It’s been a foregone conclusion for some time now that Victor Wembanyama will be the first player to hear his name called. When the draft lottery order was announced in mid-May, the Spurs were declared winners of the Wembanyama sweepstakes. But how the picks will unfold after he’s selected — and even the order in which those picks will be made — remains up in the air.
The biggest debate in the draft is seemingly between Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller. Both have been the favorite to go second at different points with Henderson, a guard from G League Ignite, recently surpassing Miller, a forward out of Alabama, in that regard.
As of Tuesday morning, here is the draft order for the first five picks:
No. 1 San Antonio Spurs
No. 2 Charlotte Hornets
No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers
No. 4 Houston Rockets
No. 5 Detroit Pistons
A lot can change between now and Thursday evening when the draft gets underway at Barclays Center, especially with so many trade rumors floating around. But for now, there’s an odds-on favorite for each of the first four picks and a clear frontrunner to go fifth, per SI Sportsbook.
Victor Wembanyama -10000
Scoot Henderson +3300
Brandon Miller +8000
Wembanyama is the top-ranked prospect on SI’s big board and a prohibitive favorite to go first. The 19-year-old French phenom stands at 7’4” and flashes a unique skill set for a player his size, which is what makes him such a tantalizing prospect. In Jeremy Woo’s SI cover story on Wembanyama, he described him as “a gargantuan perimeter player who can handle, pass and shoot like a guard but also patrols the paint true to size.”
Wembanyama averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists and three blocks per game for Metropolitans 92 in France’s LNB Pro A league this season. Some scouts even told Woo that passing on him would be a “fireable offense.”
Henderson and Miller are both standout prospects in their own right, but it appears that Wembanyama will be following in the footsteps of Tim Duncan and David Robinson, two Hall of Fame big men who were selected first overall by Gregg Popovich-coached San Antonio teams.
No. 2 Pick Odds
Scoot Henderson -225
Brandon Miller +150
Amen Thompson +3300
Just last week, Miller was a -225 favorite to go second while Henderson was available at +138. Now, it’s Henderson who’s -225 to go No. 2 while Miller moved to +150 at SI Sportsbook.
The primary reason behind the shift seems to be the growing likelihood that the Pelicans will trade up to No. 2 to select Henderson. New Orleans is reportedly willing to move former No. 1 pick Zion Williamson as well as its own No. 14 selection in order to swap spots with Charlotte. However, a more recent report indicated that the Hornets prefer a package centered around Brandon Ingram rather than Williamson.
It’s also possible that no deal materializes and Charlotte stays put at No. 2. A Henderson-LaMelo Ball pairing in the backcourt would allow Ball to play more off ball, but a rangy forward like Miller, who shot close to 40% from three in college, is a highly coveted asset in the league today.
Henderson is ranked second on Kevin Sweeney’s big board, one spot ahead of Miller.
Brandon Miller -225
Scoot Henderson +140
Amen Thompson +1200
Just like the odds for the No. 2 pick, those for the No. 3 selection have also flipped. Miller was previously +110 to go second and he’s now at -225. Henderson was available at -200 last week and is now +140. And Amen Thompson, a guard from Overtime Elite and SI’s No. 4 prospect, saw his odds to go third lengthen from +750 to +1200.
Damian Lillard is perhaps the hottest name on the trade market but a recent report indicated he wants to stay put in Portland, where he’s played for his entire career. If that is the case, the front office could potentially package the No. 3 pick and Anfernee Simons in an effort to acquire a win-now piece or pieces. However, even if the Trail Blazers do move off the pick, there’s little reason to believe a different team in the No. 3 spot would deviate from selecting whoever is left between Henderson and Miller.
No. 4 Pick Odds
Amen Thompson -175
Cam Whitmore +160
Ausar Thompson +500
Amen Thompson has become an even heavier favorite to hear his name called fourth as his odds moved from -150 to -175. However, Villanova forward Cam Whitmore also saw his odds improve slightly from +200 to +160. Overtime Elite wing Ausar Thompson, Amen’s twin and teammate, went from +700 to +500 in the last few days.
The board is wide open for Houston at No. 4 if the top three picks are indeed Wembanyama and then Miller and Henderson in whatever order. Amen Thompson is the No. 4 player on SI’s big board, Whitmore is No. 7 and Ausar Thompson comes in at No. 8. Amen Thompson averaged 16.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists and Ausar Thompson’s numbers were nearly identical: 16.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists.
The Rockets are one of the youngest teams in the league and their roster is littered with recent lottery picks, including 2021 second overall pick Jalen Green and 2022 third overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. Houston also owns the 20th pick, which the front office reportedly intends to trade, but the choice at No. 4 seems to be down to Amen Thompson and Whitmore.
No. 5 Pick Odds
Cam Whitmore +120
Jarace Walker +250
Ausar Thompson +300
Amen Thompson +450
At +120, Whitmore has the best odds to land in Detroit, followed by Houston forward Jarace Walker at +250, the No. 6 player on SI’s big board. Ausar Thompson is 3-to-1 to wind up in the Motor City and Amen Thompson is +450 as he’s expected to already be off the board at No. 4.
Walker and Whitmore were both one and done in college. Walker averaged 11.2 points and 6.8 rebounds per game for the Cougars en route to a Sweet 16 appearance while Whitmore was good for 12.5 points and 5.3 boards across 26 games.
The Pistons have invested three top-10 picks into their backcourt in the last three drafts: Jaden Ivey went fifth a year ago, Cade Cunningham was the first overall pick in 2021 and Killian Hayes went seventh in 2020. It would make sense for the front office to look at a forward here as opposed to taking another swing at a guard. Detroit could also trade the pick in an effort to land a veteran to bolster this young roster, which won a league-worst 17 games last season.