TORONTO — The inside story of how the Toronto Blue Jays won the American League pennant begins where most stories do about the peskiest, most annoying and toughest-to-kill team to make it to the World Series in a decade: the batting cage.
It was about two hours before Game 3 of the AL Championship Series at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. The Blue Jays trailed the Mariners two games to none, having fallen so flat in two home losses that they lost to two pitchers on short rest. Of most concern was the rare clunkiness of the swing of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the heartbeat of the offense and, at a freshly invested $500 million, of the entire franchise.
In going 0-for-7, Guerrero grounded out six times, three times in back-to-back games for the first time all year. Toronto is 19–33 when Guerrero is held hitless.
“Time to go to work,” hitting coach David Popkins said to Guerrero.
When Guerrero is right, he wields a Lamborghini of a swing. It is long (7.5 feet), fast (76.7 mph, eighth fastest in MLB) and sleek (at 1°, he has the flattest attack angle in MLB). He shifts smoothly through many gears to get it on time: step back, bat tilt, stride and crescendo. But it kept misfiring oddly in Games 1 and 2.
On the off day before Game 3, Popkins looked at the diagnostics and discovered the problem. It wasn’t the swing. It was a timing issue. Guerrero was making contact only a few inches or so farther in front of his body than ideal, turning line drives and long flyballs into turf-hugging grounders.
What Popkins needed to do was the equivalent of replacing the timing belt, chain and tensioner. Don’t overhaul anything; just re-set the timing.
Popkins brought Guerrero into the cage to hit against the curveball machine.
“It slows him down,” Popkins says. “Let’s him get a little confidence in his path.”
After Guerrero left the shop, he hummed through the remaining five ALCS games by slashing .526/.609/1.158 to win the ALCS MVP and continue one of the most sublime hitting performances in postseason history. Guerrero is the first player to slug as many as six homers in a postseason while striking out just three times. Barry Bonds (2002) and Albert Pujols (’04) whiffed a previous-low six times while banging six homers.
The story is instructive because of how the Blue Jays play offensive baseball as designed by a hitting coach who went undrafted out of college, played six minor league seasons without reaching Triple A, including three seasons with the Wild Things (of Washington, Pa.) and the Canaries (of Sioux Falls, S.D.), and who, after being fired by the Twins, was hired by Toronto manager John Schneider after meeting him for the first time. Turning 36 next month, Popkins is two months younger than Toronto DH George Springer.
“I’m a big fight fan,” Popkins says, “and you’ve got to be able to win different ways. You’ve got to be able to wear out the body … You’ve got to be unpredictable. And that's what we pride ourselves on.
“If we were a fighter, we’d be Jon Jones or maybe Floyd Mayweather. That’s the type of offense I say I want. It’s just this dynamic fighter. And we're going to face a great challenge in L.A.”
How the Blue Jays Match Up With the Dodgers
The World Series starts Friday in Toronto, not L.A., because the Blue Jays, fighters to the finish that they are, ground out four wins in their last four games to not only seal the AL East title but also wrest homefield from the Dodgers by one game. The series is blockbuster stuff if only for whatever jaw-dropping unprecedented greatness Shohei Ohtani has in store for us, this time against the Blue Jays, the team that thought it had a shot at signing him before the Dodgers closed the deal. Ohtani loves hitting at Rogers Centre (.288/.417/.610 in 16 games) because it reminds him of the Sapporo Dome, his former home with the Nippon Ham Fighters. In his first trip to Rogers Centre after signing with Los Angeles, Ohtani, for one of the rare times, was roundly booed—to which he responded by smashing a home run.
But for a baseball aficionado, the series is a fascinating contrast—to borrow from Popkins’s love of pugilism—of fighting styles. It’s the swing-and-miss stuff of the Dodgers’ pitchers versus the feint-jab-and-slug peppering of the Blue Jays. It’s an especially delicious matchup for Popkins, who went to minor league camp in 2019 with the Dodgers and coached in the Dodgers’ minor league system in ’20 and ’21.
“It’s going to be great,” Popkins says, “You know, I love those guys. They’re great, great players, a great staff, a great organization. I love those guys over there. And it's going to be a great, great matchup.
“Still to this day I still talk to a good amount of those guys and I can’t wait. I couldn’t be more happy that it’s them. This movie could not have written itself any better than this. I can’t wait.”
The Blue Jays blitzed the Yankees in the ALDS by hitting .338 and they sent Seattle home by putting the ball in play against the Mariners’ steady diet of in-zone fastballs. Toronto struck out only 40 times in seven ALCS games while Seattle fanned 71 times.
The Game 7 sequence for Toronto that turned a 3–1 defeat into a 4–3 win in the seventh inning was vintage 2025 Blue Jays when it came to throwing combinations. Leadoff walk (Addison Barger), 0-and-2 single (Isiah Kiner-Falefa), sacrifice bunt (Andrés Giménez), earth-shaking, roof-raising, drought-killing, jaw-dropping three-run bomb by George Springer. Gnats are less irritating than the Toronto lineup.
Seattle manager Dan Wilson kept bringing in fastball-pumping strike throwers: George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Eduard Bazardo. The Mariners chucked more heaters this regular season than any team (55.5%) and they boosted that percentage in the ALCS (59%). It did not work, not against the contact-heavy, ambush-happy Toronto lineup.
After the Giménez bunt, Wilson had eight outs to cover to get the Mariners to their first World Series. He had one more at-bat each with which to navigate against Springer and Guerrero. He chose to put the lead and those at-bats not in the hands of his closer, Andrés Muñoz, but a rubber-armed Bazardo.
Putting Bazardo on Springer meant Muñoz never faced Springer in the series but Bazardo would get him for a third time. The first pitch was a sinker that missed. Bazardo had thrown Springer eight pitches in the series. Seven were sinkers. Four of those were inside sinkers. What do you think Bazardo would throw at 1-and-0 on the ninth pitch? Yep, sinker inside.
At every turn, the Mariners could not shut down innings and get off the field without stress, if not runs. The Blue Jays struck out 1,099 times this year, the fewest for a full-season World Series team since the 2017 Astros, or, if you dismiss teams that cheat to steal signs, the 2015 Royals.
Dodgers pitchers are averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings this postseason. The Dodgers need only to make 17 plays in the field to win a game. They are not an elite defensive team. Their defensive efficiency (turning batted balls into outs) ranked 11th, their worst showing in a decade. They ranked below average in defensive runs saved. By putting the ball in play and turning the lineup over, the Blue Jays can pressure the Dodgers defense and the trigger of manager Dave Roberts as to when he goes to his bullpen.
“I think one of the things that’s so exciting about this group,” says vice president of baseball operations Ross Atkins, “is regardless of the talent or the skill level, we have something to combat it with.
“We’ve shown that that [Seattle staff] was about as good a pitching as you're going to see, and we were able to not just put it in play, but drive it. So that would be the same approach. Really, nothing changes.”
The Positive Effects of Hitting Coach David Popkins
The Blue Jays were a bad offensive club last season. They ranked sixth in fewest strikeouts, 19th in batting average, 23rd in runs and 26th in home runs. Immediately at the conclusion of the season they fired hitting coach Guillermo Martínez. About two weeks later, they flew in four candidates to interview on the same day. Popkins was the last of the four to sit down with Schneider.
“I didn’t know him at all,” Schneider says. “All I knew was that Rocco Baldelli and Jayce Tingler had high recommendations for him.”
“At the end of the interview,” Schneider says, “I got up and walked into Ross’s office and said, ‘I think we’ve got our guy.’ He was that impressive.”
Popkins had been fired by the Twins, where Baldelli managed and Tingler was the bench coach.
Something Popkins told Schneider that day would not only impress the manager but also become the mantra of the Blue Jays’ offense: “We want to be the most creative offense in baseball. We want more ways to score runs than anybody else.”
The effects were obvious, even if Toronto ran back mostly the same lineup but for free agent acquisition Anthony Santander, who played in only 54 games because of injuries. The Jays upgraded to second fewest strikeouts, first in batting average, fourth in runs and 11th in home runs.
When it comes to facing swing-and-miss, strikeout-heavy pitching staffs, the Blue Jays are fine with punching above their weight. The Yankees ranked seventh in strikeout rate (23.7%). The Mariners ranked ninth (23.3%). The Dodgers ranked second (24.8%).
The Blue Jays will not see as many challenge fastballs as they did from the Mariners. The Dodgers swept the Brewers by throwing just 40.8% fastballs. Their four starters—Ohtani, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow—threw just 37.5% fastballs. The World Series will turn on how Toronto can defeat, or at least withstand, the swing-and-miss spin and splitters from Dodgers pitchers.
“The guys are really about team at-bats,” Popkins says. “There's no one that’s selfish in our lineup, so it just makes it a tough one through nine. You kind of have to grind through it. Usually with a lot of lineups, you have a breather when you're a pitcher and you kind of just go through and attack them. There’s no stamina that’s wasted on a pitcher.
“But this team? You can really wear guys down mentally and their stamina breaks down. That’s when they make mistakes.”
I tell him that sounds like the line he gave Schneider in the interview about his philosophy.
“The most creative offensive team in baseball,” he says, like a proud parent.